A number of my friends are spending a chunk of their summer in Europe. Now I’ve never seen conclusive evidence that Europe exists, so all I know for certain is that a number of my friends need some time away from me. It’s kind of like when your parents would spell a word to each other, or when you spell out W-A-L-K in front of your dog. They’re in “Europe”. So how am I supposed to know they’re not gone forever?
Assuming they intend on coming back the main thing that could prevent them is kidnapping. Kidnapping statistics are hard to come by for adults, so these numbers are about half a decade outdated and don’t include all the countries my friends are visiting, but you’re Reading ShittyData and the sky is blue. Numbers are per 100,000 citizens.
It just so happens that the two travelers I’m most concerned for are both female and females are kidnapped in foreign countries significantly more frequently than males, 65% of kidnappings are of females. Adjusting for gender changes each country’s kidnapping rate.
Divide by 100,000 to find the chance of being kidnapped per person by country. Graphed because decimals are hard and I didn’t line them up well.
But what do these numbers mean? They look small, but are they? We need to contextualize this using the odds of being dealt a Straight Flush is poker, winning $1,000,000 and $10,000 in the Powerball lottery, and being in a car crash before they get back.
Some possible conclusions is that I am better off betting the field that none of these things will happen, but I should probably still drive carefully (1 in 10,000!).
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